3-28-05
WPT's "Bad Boys of Poker". Blinds are $6k and $12k. Antonio Esfandiara raises to $30k with 77. Gus Hansen has an 8Ts and reraises to $100k.
All fold to Antonio. He goes all-in, for $433k total. Back to Gus - there's $533k in the pot, it's $333k more to Gus,
which is almost all of Gus's stack. Gus says "I have ten high, so there's no way I can fold". Is Gus crazy?
Gus and Antonio have the big stacks at the table; both have near $450k. The next stack down is around $250k - and he's
a fish, so his stack is not worth much, and the rest are around $150k. If Gus calls and wins, he'll knock out Antonio
and have a $900k stack. Since Gus plays a big stack so well, he's got a 90% chance of winning after that. If Gus folds,
he'll have a stack around $350, and Antonio will have a stack around $550. Now Antonio is favored to win, and Gus is
closer to the low stacks; Gus here maybe has a 30% chance of winning the tournament. The pot odds in this individual pot
are irrelevant. This is also a winner-take-all tournament so the chance of winning the whole thing is all that matters.
If Gus calls, his chance of winning the hand is P. His chance of winning the whole thing is then P*.9 , since if he calls
and loses, he has almost no chance. If he folds, his chance is 0.3 , so for the call to be good, P must be >= 1/3.
What can Antonio have? Any pocket pair would probably play that way, though he would have limped some of the time with AA
and KK. AK and AQ would have played that way, and against Gus he may have done it even with AJ, and perhaps even KQ and AT.
Antonio is also a bit wild sometimes, he will make that play occasionally with any two cards. Gus says "since I have ten high",
which tells us he's putting Antonio on high cards, and Gus thinks his two cards are live. Against two high cards, Gus will
win about 37% of the time. Against a lower pocket pair (77 or lower) Gus wins about 45% of the time. Against 88 or 99, Gus
wins about 30% , against TT or higher, Gus wins about 16%. Let's count the hands.
22 - 77 (45%) : 6*6 = 36
88 or 99 (30%) : 3+6 = 9
TT - AA (16%) : 3 + 4*6 = 27
AK,AQ,AJ,KQ (37%) : 16*4 = 64
The weighted chance of winning is : (36*.45+9*.3+27*.16+64*.37)/(36+9+27+64) = 0.345 ; we see this is just slightly
more than 1/3 , which is the chance needed for playing to be profitable. Gus's move is +EV , it's not crazy at all !!
Now, the thing that makes this a great move is that most people don't realize this is simply a good mathematical EV move,
so they think you are playing crazy, which makes them play badly against you. If Antonio thinks Gus is crazy and is playing
more liberally, it makes Gus's move even better. After Gus does this, everyone else at the table thinks he's nuts and
starts to play worse against him, making his EV for his whole career better. I'm on to you, Gus Hansen, look out!
The other big factor here is that winning this tournament means almost nothing, the prize is so small. Even if it's a bad
move for winning, it's a good move for Gus's career, because it adverstises his "crazy" play which will pay off in the more
important tournaments in the future.