12/17/2009

12-17-09 - Economics

In the spirit of not just railing against "the system" but trying to maximize within it, let's talk about money.

It seems abundantly clear now that nothing substantial is going to be done about health care at all. This is very bad for most Americans (good for the few who were being denied coverage but will now get it). It's mainly good for the health care industry. It appears health care will continue it's super-GDP growth rate. It seems obvious for me that there are two consequences of that we should care about : 1. Health care stocks will outperform the rest of the market, and 2. the US economy in general (& mainly any industry involving labor) will underperform the world.

(BTW I've seen a lot of blame making within the Democrats about who's to blame for the health care failure - Lieberman is certainly a cock, but the blame is absolutely clear : the Republican block who seem to be intent on fucking up this country)

Similarly, it is now clear that absolutely nothing substantial will be done to reform the financial sector. I find it particularly hillarious the way Obama stands up and tries to brow-beat bankers into "doing more for America". LOL. First of all, we saved those banks, we should just make them do whatever the fuck we want them to do if you had any guts. Second of all, pumping money into the economy is not how you fix it, that's how you make a new bubble. Third, of course the public chastisement is not going to create any real change, all it's going to do is create some empty gestures that look good; laws and regulations are how you really change things.

Anyhoo, again we should think about how we can play this. We should be somewhat optimistic on financial stocks. We should be highly concerned that we are moving into another bubble and crash cycle right now. We should be scared of the value of the dollar.

Randomly I was thinking to myself - who do I actually trust/respect on economics? And the one that came to mind was Paul Volcker ; he's the only Fed Chairman I know of to actually be fiscally realistic and responsible. Anyway, some random searching of him confirms that he is in fact saying good things (and by that I mean saying the same thing as me) :

volcker 1
volcker 2
Sitglitz 1
Sitglitz 2
Sitglitz 3

2 comments:

Jon Olick said...

From the point of view of the government, another bubble is an economic recovery (as messed up as that is).

slyid said...

"It seems abundantly clear now that nothing substantial is going to be done about health care at all."

I haven't followed much the discussions on that law. Could you be more specific on how it's not doing much? The only reading I had recently on this subject, from European newspapers, were showing it as a great improvement, giving health-care to 31M people over the 35M or 36M not having it previously.

old rants