8/10/2008

08-10-08 - 1

I claim you can't tell whether or not I use lighter fluid on my charcoal. I give you a blind taste test. If you just guessed randomly, you would be right 50% of the time, which means a bet at 1:1 is total freeroll for you. Let's say you can actually distinguish them P of the time, and the rest of the time your guess is random. That means you get the right answer F = P + (1-P)*.5 of the time = .5*P + .5 = (P+1)/2 ; the odds we should make depend on what P you claim to have. You should pay out F / (1-F) = (P+1) / (2 - 1 - P) = (P+1)/(1-P) . If you claim to be able to tell 50% of the time, you should pay 3:1 on the bet. If you claim to be able to tell 75% of the time, you should pay 7:1 ; for 90% confidence you should lay 19:1

BTW I agree if you retardedly put on way too much lighter fluid, or if you put it on after the initial lighting, you will in fact taste it. Also if you put the meat on the fire too soon before the coals have grayed and the fluid has burned off, then you might also taste it. But if you actually use it right, then you will not taste it. Especially not on a steak or something, you might taste it on something super bland and absorptive like unflavored barbecued tofu. Anyway, lighter fluid was just intended as an example of how to make odds for casual prop bets like this. Many people naively just make a 1:1 bet which is retarded free money for the guy claiming to tell the difference.

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old rants