2/26/2007

02-26-07 - 1

I just realized the logic behind the "troop surge" currently under way in Iraq.

In terms of helping Iraq, the surge is retarded. You increase security in Bagdhad; best case the militants flee the area or simply hide their arms and chill for a while. If that had been done right after the invasion, it would have helped immensely because the integrated neighborhoods would have been stabilized and the middle class could have established trade, etc. Now it's far too late for that to help at all, the mixed neighborhoods have already been cleansed and the middle class has fled. The country is in shambles and no one is going to move back to their neighborhood because of the temporary security. (for the record I think the Democratic condemnation of the surge is also retarded, it's pointless and hypocritical, it's not an "escalation" as they like to say, and it's just cheap political grandstanding).

Anyway, here's the real reason for the surge : the surge will, of course, greatly improve security in the short run. The administration will no doubt quote those figures to claim that real progress has been made. That then gives them two options - if Iraq is still looking good heading into the 2008 elections, they will claim their strategy has worked. If it doesn't, they will blame the regression on the Democratic congress for not supporting the surge enough, for "cutting and running" or some such nonsense.

The only logical reason for the surge I can see is as a purely political maneuver.

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old rants