11-28-06 - 2

The computer picked GB to beat the spread on MNF and we just barely made it. I should've trusted my own analysis of Chi-NE and layed off the computer bet. It seems like the computer is solid, but it misses the intangibles of matchups, so it's worth using my own judgement to lay off sometimes. I'm not using my old system of really researching and looking for good matchups which I used back in 2000 or whatever, I don't want to put in all that time right now, so I'm seeing if a computer-aided picker can do well.

I'm going to write myself my guidelines. My computer system guesses the spread that it thinks is the "true spread". I want to decide to bet based on the position of the TS and the VL (Vegas Line).

1. If the TS and VL are on opposite sides of the zero, I like betting the Vegas dog to win. I especially like it if it can mean betting an underdog on the moneyline where I get +150 or some nice odds like that.

2. If the TS is close to zero and the VL is big, eg. if the TS is like 1 and VL is like 4, I again might bet the dog to win if my judgement of the intangibles is that they have a good shot. If not I drop down to the next rule :

3. If the TS/VL are on opposite sides of the 3 or 7 with at least 2 points of difference, bet the spread. eg. if the VL is a 9 and the TS is a 6, bet the spread. Teams will often win by exactly 3 or 7, so when you can bet across the 3 or 7 you're getting good value from the spread. On the other hand if the VL is a 6.5 and the TS is a 4, probably don't bet unless the intangibles really like the bet because you're not crossing a 3 or 7.

4. To make the intangibles a bit more concrete : A) Prefer betting home dogs. B) Prefer betting teams that "need a win" vs. teams that are either coasting to the playoffs are completely out of it. C) Beware of teams whose past performance is not a good indicator of their true quality, eg. if you judge they've gotten lucky in a lot of games. D) The computer isn't aware of news or injuries so mainly just avoid games where those are big factors.

Update : this week there seems to be a huge edge betting the Ravens to win vs. Cincinatti.

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old rants