07-19-06I think the stock market is ridiculously over-reacting to the Israel/Lebanon thing. This is not WW3. Things will go back to relative normal conditions. OTOH I have been predicting for a long time that the US economy was headed for the crapper, and this is sort of the right correction if for the wrong reason. Unfortunately, I didn't know how to play the prediction that the economy was F'ed. Someone wiser could have told me to play that prediction by buying Gold, which would've worked very well. At the moment, I think Gold may now be too high because of over-reaction to Israel/Lebanon, and you could even short it if you're bold. In the unlikely event that the shit really does hit the fan, I wonder if I should try to sell out of all my positions. Surely there would be a rush to sell and the markets would be F'ed.
I'm finding myself more and more just anti-Israel. It's hard for me to feel sympathy for them and understand why they act that way. I used to see it more like Northern Ireland, where it's a hard problem and you can't really make everyone happy. Now I just feel more like Israel are the invaders who are smashing the poor locals with their iron fist; for every small attack they respond a hundred fold, even when their soldiers are attacked they don't respond by attacking military targets, they simply destroy civilian homes and infrastructure. They believe they have the right to visciously retaliate to any offense, but their opponents are "murderers" or "terrorists" if they retaliate in the slightest. I have the same problem with many American Jews' position on Israel. The New York Times spoke out against Israel's current offensive - not because of the killing and damage to innocent civilians in Gaza and Lebanon, that wasn't mentioned at all - their objection was solely that the offensive would create more terrorists in the long term which would wind up reducing Israel's security. This moral relativism - the idea that any killing by you is justified, but any killing by them is an atrocity - destroys any righteousness. Now, don't get me wrong, I'm not saying the opposition's side is any better, they intentionally put their fighters in civilian neighborhoods, and no one is more blind to ambiguity than a Jihadi, etc. etc. I'm just saying it's hard for me to sympathize with either side these days.