03-27-06 [poker] - 1

03-27-06 [poker]

Small interesting hand with Gus in Superstars 3. Johny Chan open raises with 77. Freddy Deeb pushes all in with AKo. Gus is in the BB with JTs. Gus goes into the tank. Why is he thinking so hard? Someone just raised and pushed, you fold, right? Well, not so obvious. First, Johny had about half his stack in, so he's surely calling. Johny probably has something like Ax or a pair. Freddy probably has a pair or AQ or AK. Now, if either of them has a big pair, like 99+, that's very bad, but if they have hands like they did, a low pair and two high cards, then JTs actually wins more than 1/3 of the pots ! Furthermore, Gus is in the BB and the blinds were big, giving him a nice overlay. In the end Gus winds up folding, but I think it's very close, it's not a trivial fold at all. I think there is one big factor making it a fold, which is that if you fold you still have a pretty big stack and can push people around, so you don't need to run a race like that at basically even money since you'll have more +EV opportunities to steal.

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