03-22-06 [poker] - 1

03-22-06 [poker]

I think a lot of people in the 2+2 hand analysis community don't understand a key idea - the "correct" plays that we espouse are only correct because of the way average opponents play these days. If they played differently, the correct plays would be different. Because of this, the correct plays in a tournament are different than in a cash game, even at the exact same blinds, not because of any stupid "survival" issue (which is bogus, BTW), but because average villains behave differently. Similarly, the correct plays at the $1 blind NL and the $10 blind NL are different plays even with the exact same hands and boards. (for example, check-raising on the turn is much more often correct at the higher levels because of the higher aggression level and willingness to gamble). Furthermore, the correct way to play today was not correct 10 years ago, and probably will not be correct 10 years from now.

In fact, online, I feel like I can see play trends evolving all the time. Certain moves come into vogue, everyone starts doing them, and then people start countering them, expecting them all the time, then other moves come into favor. One move I've seen recently pop up a lot is people leading into the preflop raiser as bluffs on the flop. That is, someone raises in late position (usually me), a blind calls. The blind misses his hand, but he leads out pot size. You rarely saw this move a few months ago, now it's quite common, because a lot of late position stealers would fold the flop to this lead.

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old rants