3/02/2006

03-02-06 [poker] - 2

03-02-06 [poker]

I added a new feature to GoldBullion to show my stats by card group. These are my win rates with various hole card types, in terms of PTBB/100 (1 PTBB = 2 big blinds) :

groupstat BigPair		474.37
groupstat Pair 		137.79
groupstat SuitedBW		52.8
groupstat OffsuitBW	68.26
groupstat SuitedC		-14.89
groupstat OffSuitC		-12.48
groupstat SuitedA		27.13
groupstat SuitedK		-2.76
groupstat SuitedTrash	-2.39
groupstat Trash		-9.63

This is all at 6-max. First of all, paying the blinds at 6-max costs -12.5 PTBB/100 , so if I just folded every hand my win rate for all of these would be -12.5 So, with "Trash" , I'm basically folding all of them and occasionally playing them and winning a tiny bit.

There are two big surprises here, though. One is that I'm doing better with Offsuit Broadway (things like KJo) than I am with Suited Broadway (same hands, but suited). That could just be an anomaly from variance, or it could mean I'm getting too stuck on suited broadway, or that I play them to a raise too often, something like that.

The big problem is the connectors. Suited Connectors and Offsuit Connectors are big losers for me, even worse than if I just folded them every time I got them!!! That's clearly wrong, I must be playing them wrong, so I need to look into that.

I also added a new feature to show in real time the list of holes that are currently beating you and the chance you have of improving to beat them. If there are lots of holes that beat you it show a representative from each group. For example if your hole is
[ K T ]
and the board is
[ T 9 7 ]
the display shows something like :
[ T T ] Set 3.5%
[ T 9 ] 2Pair 17.6%
[ Q Q ] Pair 20.6%

While I was testing it I was playing on the play money tables and I had [ Q 6 ] and the flop was [ Q 6 6 ] and I found myself thinking woot, I flopped the nuts, and then I noticed it there in the display :

[ Q Q ] House 4.4%

In play news, I'm back on a brutal brutal dry spell. I'm finding the coding much more satisfying, because Visual Studio only gives me rotten bad beats once in a while. As a nice example of how bad I'm running, I got all-in with [ Kd Qd ] on a [ Jd Th 2d ] board against just top pair. I have 2 overs + a str8 draw + a flush draw = booya!! And ... I missed. When you're running really bad it becomes almost funny, every hand I'm just waiting for god to find a way to fuck me. One of god's favorite cruel jokes is for the board to pair when I have two pair, counterfeiting me against the donk I was going to bust who had just one pair.

It's not surprising that two pair being cracked seems to happen so often - it does happen a lot !! With two pair on the flop vs. an overpair, the overpair wins about 30% of the time, it's slightly better than a str8draw and not quite as good as a flush draw.

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