02-26-06 [poker] - 1

02-26-06 [poker]

Infrequent events have a lot more noise. If someone plays 90% of hands, +/- 1 event is not going to change that much. However, if they actually raise 2.5% of hands, then a little run of hot or cold cards can throw that number way off, anywhere between 0% and 8% even on pretty big samples (like 200 hands). This actually is very significant when you're trying to figure out what very tight people raise with. Say you're playing someone who you've seen raise with 2% of cards, which roughly means JJ+. They come in for a raise and you look down at JJ. Yikes!! If your stats are actually accurate then you should probably just dump JJ. However, they could easily be someone who opens 5% of cards and have just been on a bit of a cold spell.

No comments:

old rants