02-24-06 - 1


I've been thinking about the whole GoldBullion retail thing, and there's one thing that makes me uneasy about it. If only top players buy it, then selling it is -EV for me. That is, if say only the top 1000 Party semi-pros buy it, I make maybe $10k profit, but I've just created a super breed of multi-tabling sharks that will make the tables much worse for me to play at, and that could eat into $10k of my poker play profits!

There are currently about 2 million registered online poker players, about about 200,000 play on any one day. The amount of money bet per month is perhaps somewhere around $400 M , though it's hard to get a good estimate of that. I don't have a good feeling for how much of that market I could penetrate. Certainly PokerTracker has sold a ton, but there's a ton of competitors, like PokerEdge, PokerOffice, etc. which I don't think have sold as much (and fight against my market share). The little helpers like MTH and PartyMine I don't think have actually sold much, but I have no idea. Perhaps the closest comparison to me is PokerAce HUD, I'm curious what his sales are.

The other potential big problem for me is if Party changes their software again in a big way which breaks my app. Obviously they are trying to fight helper apps somewhat to level the playing field, which I think is good in theory. I doubt they'll make another big change any time soon, since this last one caused them so much trouble. However, there are some small changes they could easily make which would cause me a lot of trouble, which I just have to pray they don't do.

It's kind of a dilemma. If I just use it and don't release it, it's an awesome +EV tool for me which improves my poker profit. If I do release it, it might hurt my poker profit, and help a lot of other people. I would make some money on sales, but hard to say how much. If it ever got real big, Party would crack down and do something about it, and then I'd be busto. It's a gamble.

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old rants