2/17/2006

02-17-06 [poker] - 6

02-17-06 [poker]

Not all second nuts are created equal. Lets look at some cases of 2nd nuts and how often the nuts can be out there. Once you've seen your hole cards and the full board, there are 990 possible holes that one opponent can have.

You have the top house, only beaten by quads (pair on board) :
You hold [ Q Q ] and the board is [ 5 5 7 9 Q ] (rainbow). Only [ 5 5 ] beats you. That's 1 hand.

You have the top house, only beaten by quads (trips on the board) :
You hold [ A A ] and the board is [ 5 5 5 7 9 ] (rainbow). Any [ 5 x ] beats you. That's 44 hands.

You have the king high flush (3 of suit on board) :
You hold [ Ks 7s ] and the board has 3 spades, no pairs, no str8flush possible. Any [ As xs ] beats you. That's 7 hands.

You have the king high flush (4 of suit on board) :
You hold [ Ks 7x ] and the board had 4 spades (no pairs, no str8flush possible). Any [ As x ] beats you. That's 44 hands.

You have the 2nd nut straight (3-straight on board) :
You hold [ 7 J ] and the board is [ 8 9 T 2 A ] (rainbow). [ Q J ] beats you. That's 12 hands. (same count with a 4-straight on the board, but the number of tying hands goes way up in that case)

The one that really surprises me is the case with trips on board. It's actually pretty likely to see quads in that case, and certainly if you have something like [ T T ] and the board is [ 5 5 5 7 9 ] , that's not a very strong hand at all. Of course if you have a hand like [ A A ] on a board of [ 5 5 5 J J ] you don't even have the 2nd nuts, you have the 3rd nuts and a huge amount of hands beat you.

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