02-15-06 [poker]If someone folds to cbets about 45% of the time, it's still +EV to cbet them. You're not getting enough value just from their folds, but even when they don't fold you have some equity in the hand. eg. if you're on whiffed overs, you may still have 6 outs, so 45% of the time you pick up the pot, and the rest of the time you still have some pot equity.
Now if their fold to cbet is down around 25% or less, the equation changes. You're getting much less value now from taking the pot, and need to have a hand that can win. You have to just bet for value, bet when you think you have the best hand (even if it's AK no pair).