02-13-06 [poker] - 2

02-13-06 [poker]

This is related to the previous thoughts on Prahlad - what if you only push sets and flush draws on the flop? In that case, it's an easy easy fold for top pair, since top pair is way behind the sets and only 65% to win against the flush draws. What that means, and what Prahlad does, is that he can actually push with a lot more hands, such as straight draws, gutshots with overs, etc. Even with those extra hands, his range is still favored over top pair. By adding more hands he increases "Shania" - he gets more value for his gutshots because he gets a lot of folds with them, and he also gets more value for his sets, because people know he pushes crazy draws so they're more likely to call his sets.

Anyhoo, in Low Limit this is all way too fancy. A practical thing that I've noticed for myself, is that when you play against these "solid" low limit TAG players, they will only raise big with their sets and very good draws. In that case, you can just fold top pair to them. Yes, you fold to the flush draw some times, but over all it's a good fold and you don't need to sweat it. They feel clever by sometimes semibluffing, but really they're not bluffing very much and you can correctly fold there without giving up value. Also, since they love to semibluff flushes but almost never semibluff gutshots, it's pretty easy to tell when they might be semibluffing.

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