02-11-06 [poker]An old 2+2 thread I started : When folding a set might be right . Here's the conclusion :
To wrap up again, I think there are a whole bunch of factors that come together to make this hand very special : 1. Villain has obvious "set miner" stats 2. The board is very separated, two pairs are unlikely 3. There's no raise preflop, so high pairs are unlikely 4. Villain is passive, so pushing a draw is unlikely 5. I have a respectable TAG image so he doesn't put me on junk 6. No one's on tilt, we have no history of playing back at each other 7. I have the bottom set 8. There's no high card on the flop so TPTK is impossible for his flop action (and he wouldn't push that on the turn anyway) 9. The Q on the turn also makes hands like JJ very unlikely to push there 10. I haven't made any big laydowns recently so I'm not perceived as weak So, if I'm ever in a hand again where all those factors come together, I think I just might fold the bottom set and be confident about it.
I thought about this because of the Prahlad post that Dustin mentioned. The other case where you can fold a set is when your opponent is very smart and can read you well and knows from your action that you must have a set, and yet is raising in a situation where he's unlikely to be bluffing or semi-bluffing.