2/03/2006

02-03-06 [poker] - 1

02-03-06 [poker]

People often overestimate implied odds. The problem is that the amount you make up when you hit is reduced by the chance of hitting. This makes implied odds particularly bad when your chance of hitting is low. In Limit Hold'em, implied odds are usually pretty thin. In No Limit they can be very good, but you have to be sensible, especially on the turn.

Say you're on the the turn with a gutshot. You have 4 outs, so your chance of hitting is 8.7%. Say the pot is like $20 and your opponent bets $5 into it. That's a puny little bet and you're thinking that you might be able to call with implied odds. On immediate odds, you have to call $5 to win $30, so if you win no more the EV of immediate odds is : -$5 + $30 * 0.087 = -$2.39 , obviously a bad call. Can you make that up with implied odds? You have to win at least 2.39 over all, which means you have to win 2.39/0.087 when you hit!! That's $27.47 extra you have to win when you hit. That might be possible, but if you imagine that he'll fold to a big bet about 50% of the time on the river, it means you have to bet $55 into a $30 pot, which he's pretty unlikely to call even that 50% of the time.

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