2/01/2006

02-01-06 [poker] - 1

02-01-06 [poker]

One of the great thing about semibluffing against smart opponents is that they have to be extra sure you're bluffing in order to call.

Say you're just bluffing and there's no draw. If you bet the pot, he has to be right 33% of the time to call and break even (-1 + 0.33*3). Now what if you're semi-bluffing, like on the flop you push, and you either have a flush draw or a great hand. If you have a great hand, he loses always, if you have the flush draw, you still win 33% of the time. Now how sure down he have to be that you're on the draw? -1 + P * 0.66 * 3 = 0 , so P = 50.5% . Instead of just being 33% sure he's ahead, he has to be 50% sure he's ahead to call, because when he's right his equity is reduced.

This means that even when it's sort of obvious you're in a semi-bluffing situation, it can make it hard for him to call with mediocre hands.

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