12-01-05 [poker]Ugh, I just played this hand like a moron. I was on auto-pilot, just betting my good hand, I could have made a lot more perhaps.
Dealt to chukb [ Ks 8s ] spider2084 folds. grrry folds. Uldini raises . Alien114 calls . Lokijohn folds. eddievr folds. chukb calls . I'll call a min raise K8s , the implied odds are very good couchguard calls . whale1917 folds. mousy2 calls . ** Dealing Flop ** [ 8c, 8d, 9d ] mousy2 checks. Uldini bets . Alien114 folds. chukb raises . I flopped trips. Uldini is a moron who min raises and min bets even his monsters, he could have any two. couchguard calls . He must be on the flush draw or str8draw, TJ, QJ, diamonds. mousy2 folds. Uldini folds. ** Dealing Turn ** [ 9h ] chukb bets . I have the house now. Either he has me tied or beat (with a 9), or he's drawing almost dead. couchguard folds. chukb does not show cards. chukb wins 625 chips
Clearly a dumb bet on the turn. No worse hand calls me there, and I don't want to force out draws. Perhaps I can make more money if he decides to bluff, or even better if he hits his flush and thinks it's a good hand even though there's two-pair on the board. Very dumb.
This reminds me of something I've thought about a lot recently. Classic poker doctrine says that hands like K8s or 22 or 67s really want to see a flop cheap, and multi-way for maximum implied odds. That's okay if you can get that situation, which you often can in limit, but in no-limit I find there's a nice value of calling raises in position with these hands. Say someone open raises 2x or 3x. It folds to you on the button, you call with hands like this. Now, in standard analysis you don't have very good odds here, but your implied odds can be very good if the stacks are deep. If he was on AK or AQ or something and you have 22 and the flop comes A72, you'll probably get his whole stack. In fact, I really *want* to be dominated in this case. I love it if he has KK and the flop is 972, then I'm sure to take his stack with 22. Many people play cute when they flop monsters, so if your 67 flops a draw, he'll often check to you, and you can just check behind if you have a draw. These kind of miracle flops only happen about 1/20 times, but if your stacks are around M=30, that means you're getting good implied odds to see a flop here. Also, in position you'll have good opportunities to steal the pot, if he open raised AQ and the flop is low, or if he opened raised 99 and the flop is high, in either case you can take the pot. When you play this, you need to remember that the vast majority of the time you are losing money on these hands, you shouldn't get too attached to them, you want to either hit a big flop or get out (and of course bluff if he tells you he doesn't want the pot). One of the stupid traps I sometimes fall into is calling with something like A7s, looking for the flush, then the flop comes 872, and I start thinking my 7 might be good. That's danger.