11-9-05 [poker]I played a freeroll today with 503 entrants. I made 25th place. Not bad, but only the 16 top places paid. The hand I went out on, I had about 1/3 average chips, an M only about 6, so I was in trouble, but maybe, just maybe, could have folded to the money. I went out with 77, I was in the BB, and there was a min raise in the cutoff (looks like a steal), I moved in with the 77 and he called with A4. That's a terrible call, and no I'm 70% to win. The question is, is that a good move? I have to look at -
Chance of placing if I fold with an M of 6
0.7 * Chance of placing if I win and now have an M of 13
But that's very hard to estimate. I don't have a good feel for my chances of folding to the money in this situation - if my chance of folding into the money was 100%, then taking that 70% shot was a mistake. In fact, my chance of placing with an M of 6 has to be 70% or less for it to be an ok move. I have a feeling that in online play, the chance of folding into the money is pretty high, since even the big stacks seem to blow themselves out on marginal hands.
I was trying to just play very tight at that point. I have no experience in just trying to place - I'm always playing for 1st, and I don't have a good feel for how to creep into placing. Obviously folding is good, but you may have to play some hands, and what exactly are they is hard to say.