11/09/2005

11-9-05 [poker] - 1

11-9-05 [poker]

You're short stacked and considering moving in utg with a pretty weak hand. If you move in, you'll almost certainly be called by someone who is about a 60/40 favorite over you (sometimes better, sometimes worse). If you fold, you'll be blinded off and get to see another round. We'll assume you find something decent to move in with then and you do push and again get called, this time you're a 60/40 favorite (rather optimistic actually). We'll work in units where the BB + SB is "1" value, so your stack is M.

move in now with M at 40% -
	in pot is 2M+1 - assume blind isn't caller, your EV is .4*(2M+1) = .8M + .4
move in after with (M-1) at 60% -
	most likely caller is big-blind
	in pot is 2*(M-1) + 0.5 = 2M - 1.5, your EV is .6*(2M - 1.5) = 1.2M - .9
when are these equal?
	.8M + .4 = 1.2M - .9
	1.3 = 0.4M
	M = 3.25

So if your M is better than 3.25 you're better off waiting for something better. If it's 3.25 or less you need to move utg with almost any two cards. This is very rough, there are a lot of other possibilities, eg. everyone might fold, you might get called multiple times, etc. but it's a pretty good rough answer. Of course with an M of 3.25 you should have already moved in earlier in the round if possible.

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