11-29-05 [poker]This was a mistake. It's pretty subtle though, it hinges on the texture of the game and the history of this guy.
Blinds (50/100) ** Dealing down cards ** Dealt to chukb [ 4d 5c ] IAM4USC folds. Cougat33 folds. Big__Nuts folds. TxHoosier folds. z_balata raises . z_balata makes a 3x raise on the button. We both have decent stacks. He's been raising almost any two cards, especially in steal positions. We can rule out 72, but J5 is possible. Mattotto3 folds. chukb raises . I have junk, but I figure he'll fold maybe 90% of the hands he open raised, so I'm gonna try a re-pop to take the pot. That 700 is on top of the 100 I have in, so it's 500 more to him. Maybe I should have raised a tiny bit more. z_balata calls . ** Dealing Flop ** [ Jc, 8c, 2s ] chukb bets . Of course I missed the flop, I have junk. I want to try a stab here in case he doesn't have anything. If I check he's sure to bet, and there's still a good chance he has nothing. z_balata is all-In  chukb folds. I figure he must have hit the jack. It's possible he has the str8draw or flush draw, but I can't call in any case.
I think that overall, this move is +EV, but there are two big problems with it (aside from maybe not raising quite enough preflop). 1) I'd never seen anyone reraise this guy, so even though I knew he was open raising any two cards, I didn't know if he was capable of folding them to a raise. 2) The game was very soft and nutty, so I certainly could have gotten my chips in as a big favorite in some other scenario. If the game was very tough, this move coud be more called for, but not in a soft crazy game.
Which reminds me of all this talk that you have to push edges and gamble to win tournaments. That's a lot of horse shit, especially against bad players, and if you do it you're a moron.