4-22-05 - 1


I took one of the worst bad beats of my life recently in a WSOP satellite. I had a Ten-Ten and raised it up pre-flop; one caller. Flop comes A5T. I have the set, since he called my raise I'm pretty sure he has the pair of aces, so this is sure to be money for me; I check to trap, he bets as planned, I go all-in, he calls with the AQ. I've got him killed here. For example, if an A comes, it doesn't help him because he makes trips but I make a house. He's drawing dead to a runner-runner house. The chance of him beating me is (5/45)*(4/44) = 1.01% ; of course you know the ending - he hits an A and then a Q to make the higher house. I was still in it, and a few hands later I got all-in with the same guy where he had pair-over-pair on me. I won the pair-over-pair and everyone acted like that made us even; not at all; having the lower pair I had a 20% chance of winning; a nice bit of luck to win, but hardly remarkable.

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