4/20/2005

4-20-05 - 5

4-20-05

I've been playing some WSOP satellites recently. I keep getting knocked out by guys on draws, like I'll have top pair on the flop, he'll have a straight draw or something, we'll get all-in, and he'll hit it. I just can't see how to avoid this, I guess it's just bad luck. The problem is I'm only like a 65% favorite in that spot. To win the tournament, I'll have to win those situations several times, maybe 10 times. The chance of winning all 10 is only 1.3 % !! I just don't see how certain pros make it to the final table so consistently. I guess partly it must go back to an old adage - you want to get all-in only with people who have fewer chips than you *even* when you are a big favorite, because being a 65% favorite is not good enough if you're risking elimination.

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